Sorry folks, no recession yet

ZindaihasZindaihas Seattle, WAMember UncommonPosts: 3,641

I haven't seen much harping about the US "recession" on this forum, but there has been plenty of it in a lot of other places.  In articles I've read and news programs I've seen, it seems the press wants badly to see America's economy sink into a recession.

Well I hate to disappoint the media, but we're not there yet.  The report released today showed that the US economy grew.  Granted, it was a paltry 0.6%, but that's still growth.  A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.

Cheer up pessimists, there's always the chance that the economy will shrink this quarter.  I'm sure that would make the financial hypocondriacs feel a lot better.

http://nz.news.yahoo.com/080430/9/56ug.html

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Comments

  • xxvicexxxxvicexx x, WAMember Posts: 476

    ;)

  • War_EagleWar_Eagle Auburn, ALMember Posts: 472

    Not so quick!

    I heard on a conservative radio show today that this whole report is a load of shit.  They said that they didn't consider food or fuel prices when cooking up this report.  Oh, and let me reiterate.  It was a conservative talk show!!!

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  • unconformedunconformed Brooklyn, NYMember Posts: 700

    i dont pretend to know gdp or how it functions. i briefly wiki'd it and said screw this.

    but if what you say turns out to be true than you must factor in food and fuel costs when comparing it to last quarters. ill add, i think food and fuel prices are a defactor afterwards, from what i just browsed into. dunno though.

    who was this conservative talk show. is it a conspiracy to not include this kind of factor? im sure they cannot get away with this for long- and they are smart enough to not even try it, imo.

    again I can be wrong. my wife thinks so in alot of other matters...

    chips, dips chains & whips.

  • paulscottpaulscott WI rapids, WIMember Posts: 5,613

    most good Gross Domestic Product reports do take into consideration the Consumer Price Index.

     

    not that it matters much modern statistics is based entirely around getting the numbers you want, rarely something worth paying attention to unless everyone agrees on a trend even if the numbers are different.  If there is no agreed upon trend you don't have much to worry about.

    I find it amazing that by 2020 first world countries will be competing to get immigrants.

  • War_EagleWar_Eagle Auburn, ALMember Posts: 472
    Originally posted by unconformed


    i dont pretend to know gdp or how it functions. i briefly wiki'd it and said screw this.
    but if what you say turns out to be true than you must factor in food and fuel costs when comparing it to last quarters. ill add, i think food and fuel prices are a defactor afterwards, from what i just browsed into. dunno though.
    who was this conservative talk show. is it a conspiracy to not include this kind of factor? im sure they cannot get away with this for long- and they are smart enough to not even try it, imo.
    again I can be wrong. my wife thinks so in alot of other matters...

    Jerry Doyle

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  • unconformedunconformed Brooklyn, NYMember Posts: 700

    they'll be busier than ever.

     

    chips, dips chains & whips.

  • AirspellAirspell warsawMember Posts: 1,391

      Hate to dissapoint you but the US has been in a recession for a while now in everything but name only.  They have been cooking the books as far as unemployment figures go for decades and now they are doing it to these figures.  This goes along the Bush thinking that if you don't admit to it it isn't real i.e Failure of a War in Iraq.

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  • olddaddyolddaddy Brighton, MIMember Posts: 3,356

    Originally posted by Zindaihas


    I haven't seen much harping about the US "recession" on this forum, but there has been plenty of it in a lot of other places. 

    You're correct, matter of fact you may just be the first one on this site to use the term "recession". Many of us have voiced concerns over higher gas and food prices, but have not used the term "recession".

    So, what's your point, that we should start running like lemmings toward the edge of the cliff over this like they do on the other sites that you visit? To somehow troll the term "recession" into another mutual Democrat/Republican bashing thread? You think we are slacking off on our forum duties?

    Geez....as if we don't troll/flame each other enough over such a variety of different things.....

  • olddaddyolddaddy Brighton, MIMember Posts: 3,356

    Originally posted by unconformed


    ......again I can be wrong. my wife thinks so in alot of other matters...

    Welcome to married life.......

    If a man is alone in the woods, with no other human around for miles, and he makes a statement, would his wife still say he is wrong?

     

  • admriker4admriker4 boise, IDMember Posts: 1,070

    Im still waiting for the Recession of 2001 to end. Big business might be growing but the job market sure isnt. I havent worked full-time in 5 years.

    The economy needs to add 150,000 every month to keep up with new people entering the workforce. It rarely reaches 150k every month.

    The recovery from the 2001 recession was called a jobless one. For many middle class americans, the recession never ended because we either never got back to work or settled for some menial retail job for 80% less pay and benefits than we used to have.

    And dont rely on goverment stats to measure how the economy is really doing because theyre rarely accurate. For example unemployment rates are much much higher than the govt reports. This is because the govtr only counts you as unemployed if your receiving govt unemployment benefits. Many hundreds of thousands either dont quality for benefits or they use them all up (and therefore arent counted)

    President Bush goes on national tv and says there is no recession so it must be true. After all, the man has never lied before

  • zoey121zoey121 s, TXMember Posts: 926

    We hear what the report states but then we live by other standards then what that specific report mentions.

     I noticed something starting a few months ago in our neighborhood. Average trash  day was 4 - 5 cans. You could tell when folks went shopping because the packaging was in the trash. Noticable on running local errands.

     Now trash folks are enjoying the break. We see maybe 1 bag 1 can during spring yard clippings.  We noticed

    in our neighborhood that many of the big  vehciles were turned in and it seems the drive ways just have economy and normal size vehicles. Oh folks would go out in the evenings we see more and more folks staying home in the evenings . Malls empty, strip centers that use to packed full of cars now are not.

     We see for clousers . This is just what one neighborhood experainces. I wonder if similar things are echoed acrross the nation?

     The perception of things not going well keep folks from those big ticket items.For various reasons. With folks believing in what they are seeing higher gas prices higher food prices, that will persuade them to hold off on those big purchases.

     Oh a few areas i still see an increase in business. Local thrift stores and the dollar store .

     Are we there yet? Probably by the strictest sence not yet. Are we close? As long as we are not spending on big ticket items learned our lessons on credit . Then just maybe all is not as it seems

     

  • Entreri28Entreri28 Joplin, MOMember Posts: 589

    I might be wrong, but I think the data released was an estimate.  The actual GDP will be out around the end of May I think.  That's how it usually works anyway.

    Your mind is like a parachute, it's only useful when it's open.
    Don't forget, you can use the block function on trolls.

  • ErmacErmac Joplin, MOMember Posts: 103

    Ya that is just the initial estimate. The real information wont be here until summer. If I remember right the first quarter of the 2001 recession was positive with the first estimate as well. Then later after revisions it was discovered we were in a recession. That is usually how it goes from how I understand it, you dont know right away when you are in a recession because it takes so long to calculate GDP accurately. Besides that the two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth definition isn't popular with economists. It is more of a laymans definition.

  • HYPERI0NHYPERI0N BirminghamMember Posts: 3,515
    Originally posted by War_Eagle


    Not so quick!
    I heard on a conservative radio show today that this whole report is a load of shit.  They said that they didn't consider food or fuel prices when cooking up this report.  Oh, and let me reiterate.  It was a conservative talk show!!!

    Exactly and America has been in recession for some time now it seems of course with an Election coming up I'm sure the Administration will massage the figures to present the best possible image of Americas flagging economy.

    Another great example of Moore's Law. Give people access to that much space (developers and users alike) and they'll find uses for it that you can never imagine. "640K ought to be enough for anybody" - Bill Gates 1981

  • DailyBuzzDailyBuzz Athens, GAMember Posts: 2,306

    Home Foreclosures up 23%

    Consumer Bankruptcy up 27%

    Unemployment over 5%

    Who cares what they call it, the outlook is pretty grim.

  • JosherJosher Deerfield beach, FLMember Posts: 2,818

    Originally posted by DailyBuzz


    Home Foreclosures up 23%
    Consumer Bankruptcy up 27%
    Unemployment over 5%
    Who cares what they call it, the outlook is pretty grim.
    I chalk those 3 points up to stupidity for the majority of those effected.  Theres always the sad case of bad luck or being laid off, but many people choose to be unemployed, have no sense financial responsibility leading to those hard times and in the case of Foreclusures, pure stupidity and not reading what you sign.  Sure the banks were scum and are reaping what the sow now, but people should be responsible for there actions.  Saying "I didn't know" means you deserve it.  I have no sympathy for stupidity.  Like large credit debt isn't fault either.

    We'll recover from all of this just like everything else.  If you don't think so, there's plenty of other "much better" countries to go move to. 

  • HYPERI0NHYPERI0N BirminghamMember Posts: 3,515
    Originally posted by Josher


     
    Originally posted by DailyBuzz


    Home Foreclosures up 23%
    Consumer Bankruptcy up 27%
    Unemployment over 5%
    Who cares what they call it, the outlook is pretty grim.
    I chalk those 3 points up to stupidity for the majority of those effected.  Theres always the sad case of bad luck or being laid off, but many people choose to be unemployed, have no sense financial responsibility leading to those hard times and in the case of Foreclusures, pure stupidity and not reading what you sign.  Sure the banks were scum and are reaping what the sow now, but people should be responsible for there actions.  Saying "I didn't know" means you deserve it.  I have no sympathy for stupidity.  Like large credit debt isn't fault either.

     

    We'll recover from all of this just like everything else.  If you don't think so, there's plenty of other "much better" countries to go move to. 

    Problem is when the banks were selling this stuff they tended to lie and exudate the benefits and they would deliberately sell to those they knew couldn't do it.

    Another great example of Moore's Law. Give people access to that much space (developers and users alike) and they'll find uses for it that you can never imagine. "640K ought to be enough for anybody" - Bill Gates 1981

  • maskedweaselmaskedweasel houston, TXMember EpicPosts: 9,250

    Originally posted by HYPERI0N

    Originally posted by Josher


     
    Originally posted by DailyBuzz


    Home Foreclosures up 23%
    Consumer Bankruptcy up 27%
    Unemployment over 5%
    Who cares what they call it, the outlook is pretty grim.
    I chalk those 3 points up to stupidity for the majority of those effected.  Theres always the sad case of bad luck or being laid off, but many people choose to be unemployed, have no sense financial responsibility leading to those hard times and in the case of Foreclusures, pure stupidity and not reading what you sign.  Sure the banks were scum and are reaping what the sow now, but people should be responsible for there actions.  Saying "I didn't know" means you deserve it.  I have no sympathy for stupidity.  Like large credit debt isn't fault either.

     

    We'll recover from all of this just like everything else.  If you don't think so, there's plenty of other "much better" countries to go move to. 

    Problem is when the banks were selling this stuff they tended to lie and exudate the benefits and they would deliberately sell to those they knew couldn't do it.


    Thats actually true. Banks will give a loan for a greater amount then most families can afford because they expect so and so to pay a greater interest over a particular life of the loan.

    I'm currently in the process of buying a house, the banks originally encouraged me (and approved me) for much more money then I am willing to spend.  When I first started shopping (nearly 4 months ago) they even told me about certain "benefits" that I could qualify for that will help me over the life of the loan. 

    What it boils down to though is people need to think realistically about how much they can afford.  A large portion of people just go with whatever the bank says just because they're bewildered they were actually approved for something.      ---- Everyone is a first time buyer at some point. 



  • DailyBuzzDailyBuzz Athens, GAMember Posts: 2,306

    Originally posted by Josher

    I chalk those 3 points up to stupidity for the majority of those effected.                                                                                                                                                                      

    We'll recover from all of this just like everything else.  If you don't think so, there's plenty of other "much better" countries to go move to.

    That might be acceptable, if only the ones making uneducated decisions were affected. Unfortunately, nearly everyone in the country is affected by these numbers. Sure, you still have a portion of society that is snatching up real estate now that it's reduced by 20%, but for the majority of Americans, the effects are adverse.
  • Dis_OrdurDis_Ordur Minneapolis, MNMember Posts: 1,501

    We are all taking a hit to the shorts these days, but let us not forget some key points:

    Home values increased by over 85% in the last 10 years. 

    Most foreclosures are from interest only loans with zero down and ARM's (adjustable rates). 

    Investment firms are going to start investing in areas outside of real estate now.

    85% increase in 10 years is astounding.  Even if the prices come down 20%, the American real estate market is still one of the most valuable in the world.  If we end up with a 65% increase for a decade, that is still phenomenol.  Sure it doesn't look pretty now, but we will get back to 5% a year increase in real estate value by 2010.

    People who took out interest only loans with 0 down are idiots.  That is a wrong way to buy a house.  This is both the bank and the consumer's fault, but mostly the consumer's.  I get credit card offers daily in the mail, yet I know I have enough plastic.  Consumers should have rethought these 'too good to be true' housing options.  If you don't have any money down, you are not fully vested in the house and do not feel like you own it anyway.

    Lastly, everyone is finally pulling their heads out of their asses and investing more in the stock market.  Historically stocks have performed better than real estate, and now that the housing orgy is done, we can invest in small businesses and grown the economy organically, not artificially as we have been doing ever since the 2001 recession.

    image

  • PyritePyrite West Valley, UTMember Posts: 309

    "Employers cut another 20,000 jobs in April, the Department of Labor reported today. The reduction, while smaller than expected, marks the fourth straight month of job losses in the U.S., as many companies fight to stay in the black in a weakened economy."

     

    abcnews.go.com/Business/Economy/story

     

    "President Bush sent lawmakers a $70 billion request Friday to fund U.S. operations in Iraq and Afghanistan into next spring, which would give the next president breathing room to make his or her own war policy.  Congressional analysts say Bush's request would bring the total spending since Sept. 11, 2001, to fight terrorism and conduct the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to $875 billion."

     

    abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory

    The most important part of reading is reading between the lines.

  • AmpallangAmpallang dallas, TXMember Posts: 396

    I believe many recessions are formally labeled as such after the event due to the entire hindsight factor making it clear.

    If you are not being responded to directly, you are probably on my ignore list.

  • SagaBoySagaBoy Atlanta, GAMember Posts: 83

    Recession?  What are you talking about.  Our President came on national TV and said, "The economy is STRONG!!!"  Now I work for the railroad in freight logistics and all though the amount / frequency of freight has slowed down to record lows across 3 regions I know for a fact that the economy is strong....um...because the president said so.  I mean the railroad doesn't move the biggest portion of interstate commerce related freight, nor does it feed into the vast network of truck drivers (who are going belly up due to tyrannical diesel prices), so I mean I don't really know much.  So let's just keep calling conservatives crazy and believe - no let's know that the ECONOMY IS STRONG!  I mean anyone who has been in office for 8 years and is as intelligent and oratorically sound as President Bush must be right.  Oh yeah, and vote for McCain - so we won't get more of the same!

  • BlazinBladesBlazinBlades Lajola, CAMember Posts: 1,214

    This is why poor people (anyone who clears less then 100 k a year after taxes of course) suck. They always have to whin about their own poor losser lot in life, when they start to have hard times or they make stupid moves or get laid off because they are lazy and fat they always turn around and blame everyone important but themselves. The economy is strong for those that matter, the upper middle class and above is all that matters, the rest of the lower class people (if you can call them people they are more like crap then anything), do not matter they are just, you know crap. So ummmm role with your hard times and ummmm it sucks to be you. Bring it on down now.

    Damn byotch dat aint no friggn moon fool, dat be a friggn space station byotch.

  • baffbaff swaveseyMember Posts: 9,457

    Originally posted by Dis_Ordur
    85% increase in 10 years is astounding. 
    In ten years?

     

    That's a pretty miserable return in my opinion. That's like only 20% more than if I left the money in a savings account and didn't even bother.

    I would expect 10% a year from almost any stock on the market, just on dividends, regardless of whether or not the company gains in asset value.

    85% over ten years is an effective loss in my books.

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