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Why Potbs may not succeed as a full priced game
DJXeon
Member UncommonPosts: 553
FLS started six years ago with a 600k budget.
Potbs has come a long way to what it is today & FLS has managed a tight financial ship.
Much has happened since then & the days of high cost mmorpg development is over for the time being,
Potbs retail game sales have unfairly suffered because SOE dragged its heals on giving credit back to the stores for unsold Vanguard boxes - as a consequence some retailers do not stock or promote Sony games right now.
SOE needs to quickly re-establish its relations with retailers & the only way to do this is to offer price cuts.
Potbs has already FTP (Free- to- play) cash shop versions in the eastern countries & although i hope it does not happen in the Europe or the USA this is the current trend.
SOE is already planning FTP with RMT & i wonder if Potbs is being groomed for it.
In the meantime the box price is still too high & a monthly sub of $9.99 is the only way for SOE to win back its trust & orders from the large game retailers.
Comments
And the Gods and Heros fiasco?
It's a shame. But it is possible a lot of the 'blame' rests with FLS and their inflexible ideas.
The retail box? Did SOE tell them they could make this idea work? If so, then FLS certainly have grounds for complaint... but did SOE warn them that it would be difficult to do a retail release?
If so, then FLS should have listened.
We may never know.
It was FLS (AFAIK) that insisted that the Pre-Order benefits be via purchase of the Pre-Order box only.
That said - it was definately SOE who botched it.
For the SOE apologists - true SOE cannot control the policies of the retailers - but as a distributer and marketer it IS their responsibility to see that retailers get the correct information to market the product correctly. That includes details on promotions and cross-promotions.
If SOE was having problems with the process they should have approached the client (FLS) and said. It is then the client's call what to do about it.
This may now be VERY problematic at this late stage though.
SOE will certainly have a say here because business plans will have been made based on the current pricing plan.
No matter what they do - they run the risk of upsetting those who have already purchased.
If for example the Australian players are allowed into the SOE servers once they get their "free" client then those who payed US$50 for the SOE client will be rightly upset.
The whole planning has been inflexible - and is now a complete mess.
Next week will likely be worse - particularly as FLS are now kneejerk reacting to problems without proper planning or thought (The MoV issue)
Nothing says irony like spelling ideot wrong.
Save the fanboys and apologists we all knew the SoE thing would bite them in the ass, that much was and is obvious. However, I think it is pretty silly to say that PotBS is struggling simply because of SoE. FLS made some really bad decisions since closed beta, even some in closed beta, and now they are paying the price for those poor decisions:
* Economy focus over PvP/RvR/PvE - economy is a good thing but making the rest of the game a sink to justify the economy is wrongheaded.
* 11 launch servers - 3 times what was needed.
* Changing the contention system for RvR/endgame at the end of closed beta and moving to live with it entriely untested as a result.
* Not ever having high enough closed beta testing populations.
* Not merging servers or offering character moves already, or at least prmising to do so in short order.
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All the other in-game issues can be easily corrected by server merges, balancing rewards or whatever but changing the trend of sales is by far the most important thing to do.
It's not simply because of SOE but the decision to launch with 11 servers was a big one based on projected sales that were way off mark mainly due to bad promotion & marketing in the aftermath of the Vanguard failure.I think that is oversimplifying things quite a bit. Yes, SOE sucks and allot of people where lost the instant they went with SOE. Yes, SoE is incompetent and they have failed to entice allot of potential people because of it. But the game had a chance to make an impression and through the stress tests and open beta people simply didn't like it enough to stick around or get a buzz going. And I think it is pretty fair to suggest that FLS might have gotten stuck with SoE due to the lack of impression the game made when they shopped it around.
Not so easy that FLS hasn't corrected them in the now two months they have been live. Merges and character moves easily the single easiest thing they can do to immediately improve the overall state of the game for most all players - but they have been so silent you have to wonder what the hell they are doing. If they don't merge or something this week they will likely lose so many players of the few hey have left that it is going to be hard to get them back if they give the game away altogether. Anyways - there is just no way they are going to get SoE to change their stripes, spend more money on what is proving a turkey, or otherwise turn that end of thigns around so long as the game itself is an utter and complete mess and bleeding players like crazy.
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We are only talking the difference between 10k subcribers before all the servers look full.
In todays massive mmorpg market that should be achievable even for SOE with a simple price drop.
By easily i mean with time - its not going to happen overnight!
Potbs is meant to be a slow paced ship game in any event .
Not so easy that FLS hasn't corrected them in the now two months they have been live. Merges and character moves easily the single easiest thing they can do to immediately improve the overall state of the game for most all players - but they have been so silent you have to wonder what the hell they are doing. If they don't merge or something this week they will likely lose so many players of the few hey have left that it is going to be hard to get them back if they give the game away altogether. Anyways - there is just no way they are going to get SoE to change their stripes, spend more money on what is proving a turkey, or otherwise turn that end of thigns around so long as the game itself is an utter and complete mess and bleeding players like crazy.
I wouldn't say that they have been "silent"... in that they have rushed out 2 (or is it 3?) patches since the start of pre-boarding.
But to me it looks more like panic than developement. In games (MMORPGs in particular) even small changes can have big knock on effects.
There are a lot of issues here:
Low populations on some of the servers is a small part of that.
BAD DESIGN is another, far larger, issue.
There are some things they can do at once (server mergers)- and some that will need careful and long term planning and testing.
Really, not a lot we can do unless FLS is prepared to step back and take a deep breath. Of course I don't know if their financial (and contractural) situation allows for that?
If it does however, I would make the suggestion that many other games forums on this site have a "Suggestions" sub forum.
Perhaps FLS could ask MMORPG for the same thing - maybe we can propose some helpful ideas?
This game has potential... but now I can say to all the Fanbois: See? Developers are NOT always right!
Nothing says irony like spelling ideot wrong.
I think pricing isn't really an issue yet, because it won't fix what's wrong with the game (IMO). I think if the devs commit to updates over the next 60 to 90 days that add a more robust feel to PVE between landscaping, quest design, and rewards, they'll accomplish much more.
At that point, but not before, I think offering a 7 or 10 day trial would be worthwhile and could do wonders for the game's health and sub numbers.
Of course FLS should & will do everything they can to improve the game as it is still loaded with potential however potential does not sell games.
Currently many subscribers are considering weather to re-new for a second month & judging by the forums many won't because of frustrations with risk & rewards etc.
The large game retailers in Europe do not appear to be pushing Potbs in the same way that they did with previous Sony games; you are lucky to see 2-3 copies on their bottom shelves & often they have not heard of it.
I'm quite sure that if this was not the case & the price was reduced release sales would have been much higher, many existing subscribers would re-new & lots more passers by would pick up a copy at their local games store.
Far better to have 2 subs at $9.99 than one at $14.99 as this not only increases populations to perhaps avoid a server merge but could bring in more overall income. Risky but better than doing nothing (Lotro already reduced)
As Gyrus says it depends if FLS are prepared financially to let their game possibly run down over the next 2-3 months; merge the servers add a robust feel & then start to promote it later.
I'm not sure FLS can afford to do this as not many mmo's get a second chance.
I get the feeling that going with electronic distribution and avoiding retail distribution would have netted the initial effect, without the added expenses and headaches involved with retail. Retail distribution seems to be a thing of the past, much like the music CD.
To help improve the number of customers, I think there is not going to be a single bullet to solve everything; it will take a number of ideas (of which some have been mentioned above).
As for SOE (I'll keep my 'negative' comments in reserve, but will say this), SOE does not want to see PotBS deep six, since that will show a poor track record with the SOE Distribution System and the Station Pass.
And that is why...
Conservatives' pessimism is conducive to their happiness in three ways. First, they are rarely surprised -- they are right more often than not about the course of events. Second, when they are wrong they are happy to be so. Third, because pessimistic conservatives put not their faith in princes -- government -- they accept that happiness is a function of fending for oneself. They believe that happiness is an activity -- it is inseparable from the pursuit of happiness.
Lets take a look at some of the current mmorpg industry trends:
1. FLS admit that many features were left out of the game design due to budget restraints.
2. Cheaper electronic or internet distribution as you mention above.
3. Low cost mmorpg developement compared to previous mmos.
4. Free-to-Play with cash shops as Potbs already is in eastern block countries.
5. More competiton with the increasing amount of games on the market.
6. All the above should lead to lower prices for the end users or customers?
SOE do not appear to be passing on the lower costs to its retailers or customers which will have an effect on the amount of games sold.
Low populations could lead to lower overall income & has a danger of causing mass cancellations.
Most mmos need high populations to succeed.
Why I think PoTBS will not succed as a game or as a full priced game.
Played:
From Earth & Beyond, Anarchy Online, Matrix Online, Star Wars Galaxies, World of Warcraft, Age of Conan, Tabula Rasa (Beta), EvE Online, City of Villians, Atlantica Online, Guild Wars, Lineage 2, Pirates of the Burning Sea, PlanetSide, RF Online, Second Life, Fallen Earth.
In canada you cannot find this game at futureshop or at bestbuy, the 2 major software companies in the nation, eb games is the only place i have seen carry it, and they are charging more then the download version, 54.99.
The idea of charging for non-premier MMOs as if they were a fully enclosed game is antiquated at best. I know the need to generate a significant cash influx to pay for development and server costs is part of the business model, however, MMOs generate revenue based on monthly subscriptions or RMT, meaning that the income curve will be a significantly smoother curve. Also given the failure some MMOs your average consumer is much more wary to buy into a game they intend to play for 2-3 years without a trial or low buy-in cost.
In my opinion games which will have 250,000 or less subscribers should charge two times the monthly fee for the box with a month playtime would enable people to get into the game and give it a chance without having a $60 coaster a month down the road.
I think 250,000 subs is a ridiculous, arbitrary number personally. If the MMO is still funding new development and the servers are at a critical enough mass to have full participation in PVP or grouping...who cares if they have 50k or 500k subs?
Additionally, I don't see all these games "failing". I see most of them still open, and people still playing them.
Stop kidding yourselves, this game is nearly dead. The following springs to mind:-
Matrix Online - in boats.
...you do know the Matrix Online is still played and payed for by subscribers...and even still receiving development time, and a new update last month. The game is around after 3 years still...but I'm sure you're right, that this game is "nearly dead" and beyond hope...
after all, you can't bunnyhop everywhere you go...
FLS has a great team & most of the gaming reviews have been quite good, it deserves to do well.
There is bound to be some fallout after the launch honeymoon period but i would expect steady growth over the longterm. The next 2-3 months will be difficult which is not being helped by the dismal marketing & promotion particularly in some European countries.
FLS has a great team & most of the gaming reviews have been quite good, it deserves to do well.
There is bound to be some fallout after the launch honeymoon period but i would expect steady growth over the longterm. The next 2-3 months will be difficult which is not being helped by the dismal marketing & promotion particularly in some European countries.
lol...I was being sarcastic regarding the previous posters forecast of doom
While I won't play the game in it's current state, the commitment of the dev team seems quite high...if it's matched [i]at all[/i] with adequate funding, I think things could still work out for PotBS.
As to games not making it in the market unless they are discounted, I was in at my local Best Buy store today, man, WOW must be faltering, it was only $19.99. Too bad that WOW is now in the discount bin crapper, must have been too many servers, or maybe even shoddy marketing.
Considering that the Canadian dollar and the US dollar are trading at about the same value, I find this absolutely amazing. I think our Canadian cousins are getting gouged.As to games not making it in the market unless they are discounted, I was in at my local Best Buy store today, man, WOW must be faltering, it was only $19.99. Too bad that WOW is now in the discount bin crapper, must have been too many servers, or maybe even shoddy marketing.
i honestly believe there is a price war going on that SOE has not woken up to!
If they do not compete Potbs will suffer badly.
A recent post from Rusty confirms that orders in Spain are well below par & they are looking into it.
Another poster says:
[quote=Wisnoe;134747]Rusty, any ideas or solutions for the shelf release in Europe. I know a lot of Dutch players who would play this game, but never heard of it because its not officially out on the shelves yet. No reviews in Dutch game magazines yet, because its not out yet. I have yet to see SWE??? ingame, so I guess Netherlands is not the only one suffering from this problem.
Any estimate to when PotBS will massively hit Europe?[/quote]
Kinda speaks for itself - doesn't it?
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Well i asked Rusty on the FLS forums about pricing and here is his reply:
[quote=Rusty;137884]It's based on sales. As long as we keep our line, we won't change the price. In general, the boxes get cheaper and cheaper over time to attract a wider range of more casual players, but it's always based on how much you're selling right now.[/quote]
In view of this i will change the topic title to "may" not succeed as i personally believe Potbs should achieve growth in the longterm.
48 Hours till people have to start paying and well, the servers are nearly empty . You can see tumble weeds blowing across the open water.
In the end this game will be a three server game max. Its too bad to it had a heck of a lot of "potential" but then again thats what they said about Vanguard. It will wind up being just another station pass piece of trash.
Cal
niche game for niche players... Guess it's really not for everyone..
I don't think its a great game but I take it for what it is, and since I took the leap to buy it, the consequence we must all face when taking that leap.. Hype is just that, Hype. Not really promises and if you as a consumer drag yourself to believe that they are in fact promises than you are leaving yourself no choice but to be dissapointed and sad or angry about changes.
I'm debating on what to do when my free month runs out, because there is a part of me that really really enjoys the game, but the population and lack of pvp for lower levels make me really want to turn my attention elsewhere..
They really need to shift the focus of this game to a more sandbox style like Eve.. Right now it really seems too streamlined and the pvp...... Taking over ports is useless if you don't get all into that economy stuff and that is very very dissapointing to me.. The taking of a port (ESPECIALLY to hostile countries) should almost make it off limits to everyone thats not of that country or a registered trader thats on good terms with the country it belongs to.. ALL that port battle stuff just to save a lil bit of money of a bundle of logs????...
lol...sigh....
Word on the site today is that they got a new Producer - REV has left to pursue a job with MS (xBox Live Arcade team). I cannot help but wonder if this doesn't indicate a change in direction. REV was allways passionate about alot of the ideas that are most troubled now (prominence of the economy, combat loss with little reward, even pirates being part of RvR when they are so gimped VS the nationals) or at least seemingly so. It would explain the 3 week silence from FLS if there was a power or vision struggle going on until just recently. Suddenly they start talking again and then we here Rev is leaving. Don't misunderstand, Rev was a solid good guy - I am sure it was nothing nasty but even Rusty now is admitting a big problem with PvP risk VS reward and REV never bought us pointing that out in beta.
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A 'new' guy, fresh ideas. Perhaps.
This is not something new I read something about it earlier, but it seems fun.
"The first thng we're working on is the skirmish system. It's basically a way for us to do competetive PvP."
http://potbsvault.ign.com/View.php?view=Articles.Detail&id=76
Anyway, what I find alot fun(lack of better word) in is that they are producing their game. Understand me correct there. They are talking about like , don't know, like when I bougth my house "Great now I can do almost what I want 'cause it is mine". While they are taking influence on what is in other games they implement the things and share the ideas with the community.
I'm so broke. I can't even pay attention.
"You have the right not to be killed"
does anyone have the website links for the free 2 play versions with cash-shop.