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Number of LOTRO Subscribers?

cityzencityzen Phoenix, AZPosts: 313Member

I was reading Tobold's MMORPG blog and he guessed around 200k subscribers for LOTRO to start out.

http://tobolds.blogspot.com/2007/03/calibrating-my-crystal-ball.html

I'm sure it will grow beyond that, very smooth release so far. What you think?

If you think it's more, or less than the options here there is another poll later on, just vote once!

 

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Comments

  • QuinguQuingu lisboaPosts: 400Member
    that site is BS since Turbine announced  600k pre-orders one month ago.
  • cityzencityzen Phoenix, AZPosts: 313Member
    Originally posted by Quingu

    that this is BS since Turbine announced  600k pre-orders one month ago.
    Doesn't mean that they all subscribed.

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  • homeskillethomeskillet Somewhere, CAPosts: 119Member
    200k to start out the first few months but it should grow to the 500-600k mark after the game settles. I expect something similar to the EQ2 population.



    Anyone expecting LOTRO to top WoW is in denial.
  • ZarraaZarraa Rockton, ILPosts: 481Member
    Originally posted by homeskillet

    200k to start out the first few months but it should grow to the 500-600k mark after the game settles. I expect something similar to the EQ2 population.



    Anyone expecting LOTRO to top WoW is in denial.
    And anyone who claims to know how many subs a title is capable of has no clue what their talking about.

    Like someone accurately predicted WOW's current mammoth subscriber base back in 2004.....please.

    Dutchess Zarraa Voltayre
    Reborn/Zero Sum/Ancient Legacy/Jagged Legion/Feared/Nuke & Pave.

  • SvayvtiSvayvti Portland, ORPosts: 160Member
    They had 600k pre-orders before open beta even started, which topped well over 600k open beta accounts.



    Plus an aggressive release which will feature the MMO even in walmart so every complete noob can pick it up.

    Yet you seriously think nobody is going to buy the game, nobody from open beta will stay, and a 3rd of the pre-orders will quit... because?



    This is no buggy launch like vanguard, saga of ryzom, AO, Horizons, etc.



    LotRO might not be bigger than WoW, but it is guaranteed to be in a subscriber category alone with it.
  • Hoobley_deletedHoobley_deleted BangkokPosts: 677Member
    I heard that there would be at least eleven or twelve people playing this game, but who knows? There could be even more!
  • cityzencityzen Phoenix, AZPosts: 313Member
    Originally posted by Svayvti

    They had 600k pre-orders before open beta even started, which topped well over 600k open beta accounts.



    Plus an aggressive release which will feature the MMO even in walmart so every complete noob can pick it up.

    Yet you seriously think nobody is going to buy the game, nobody from open beta will stay, and a 3rd of the pre-orders will quit... because?



    This is no buggy launch like vanguard, saga of ryzom, AO, Horizons, etc.



    LotRO might not be bigger than WoW, but it is guaranteed to be in a subscriber category alone with it.



    I wouldn't take the guy too seriously. But he does bring up some interesting points. Reasons people would preorder and not subscribe could be many. This poll/thread was only for the first number we will hear from Turbine on how many subscribers there are.

    I'll add some options, only vote once please.

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  • ianubisiianubisi Morgan Hill, CAPosts: 4,201Member

    The brand name will sell it in the millions, or not at all. Either it will sit at a respectable 250K or it will skyrocket up in the millions.

    Quality is not the only watermark of a successful product. Recognition is an extremely powerful marketing entity. If you can bind the two together, you get the license to print your own money like Blizzard was able to do.

    LOTRO is capable of this feat. We'll just have to see how the general public (meaning, people who do not read this website) feel about it.

  • Zaxx99Zaxx99 Somewhere IN, INPosts: 1,761Member

    In six months, Lord of the Rings Online will reach a MINIMUM of 3 MILLION subscribers. Just watch. Laugh now. Flame now. Whatever. But wait the six months and come back and throw this in my face if I am wrong.


    - Zaxx

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  • ThorsnesThorsnes PorsgrunnPosts: 461Member
    Six months from now I will hopefully be playing WarHammer Online... ...and there's no way LoTR:O will ever get 8 million+ subscribers. LoTR:O is only a phenomenon within the fanbase, while World of WarCraft has a far wider audience. The game will probably be a big hit tho'.
  • KenzeKenze Posts: 1,214Member Uncommon
     I had never heard of Warcraft before World of Warcraft.. but I ve known of Lord of the Rings since early childhood.

    I think LoTRO will do very well I doubt it will every deThrone WoW but all the other MMos better get ready to slide down a notch

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  • DeadJesterDeadJester maricopa, AZPosts: 499Member

    this game will hover around 300k not bad not great there are 2 many games coming out for this game to be uber  but it will be a good game for a long time  and i was not counting all the gold farmers so like 350 k

     

  • CerionCerion Santa Monica, CAPosts: 1,005Member

    Well as of now there are 18 servers.  If you figure roughly 20k capacity for a server (not logged capacity), then you have a number up around 360k right now as a ballpark.  Even being conservative, they probably have over 300k subs.

    I'm willing to bet it will grow as well.

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  • druarcdruarc WellingtonPosts: 182Member
    The name alone should pull in some decent numbers, a bit like SWG did, lets just hope they don't go changing the game too much ;)



    Even though I preordered and played in the open beta I've yet to get my copy, in fact won't get it till May cause we poor buggers in NZ are 2nd class citz



    So you'll see another small bump in subscribers once we all get on board ;).
  • DonnieBrascoDonnieBrasco GalwayPosts: 1,757Member
    Originally posted by DeadJester


    this game will hover around 300k not bad not great there are 2 many games coming out for this game to be uber  but it will be a good game for a long time  and i was not counting all the gold farmers so like 350 k
     

    A clue for you: LOTR universe/lore is many many years old and known by billions.

    There is no such thing as EQ/Warcraft/Warhammer/etc lore outside the computer and the roleplay world - which is a couple million ppl at BEST.



    DB

    Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.

  • DeadJesterDeadJester maricopa, AZPosts: 499Member
    Originally posted by DonnieBrasco

    Originally posted by DeadJester


    this game will hover around 300k not bad not great there are 2 many games coming out for this game to be uber  but it will be a good game for a long time  and i was not counting all the gold farmers so like 350 k
     

    A clue for you: LOTR universe/lore is many many years old and known by billions.

    There is no such thing as EQ/Warcraft/Warhammer/etc lore outside the computer and the roleplay world - which is a couple million ppl at BEST.



    DB


    and what does that have to do with the online game?  Star wars has the same kind of fan base so does Dungens and Dragons so what your point just because the IP is good and is known  by BILLIONS doesnt  mean a BILLION players will play it
  • DonnieBrascoDonnieBrasco GalwayPosts: 1,757Member
    Originally posted by DeadJester

    Originally posted by DonnieBrasco

    Originally posted by DeadJester


    this game will hover around 300k not bad not great there are 2 many games coming out for this game to be uber  but it will be a good game for a long time  and i was not counting all the gold farmers so like 350 k
     

    A clue for you: LOTR universe/lore is many many years old and known by billions.

    There is no such thing as EQ/Warcraft/Warhammer/etc lore outside the computer and the roleplay world - which is a couple million ppl at BEST.



    DB


    and what does that have to do with the online game?  Star wars has the same kind of fan base so does Dungens and Dragons so what your point just because the IP is good and is known  by BILLIONS doesnt  mean a BILLION players will play it

    Noone was talking about a billion players.

    Wow has broadened the MMOG genre and LOTR has a huge fanbase. (DnD fanbase don't make me laugh trying to compare :)) This is their chance to jump in.

    BTW a beautiful, solid, fun to play and very accessible game should have more than 500k subscribers on its own merits, no need for a huge IP anyway...

    DB

     

    Denial makes one look a lot dumber than he/she actually is.

  • DeadJesterDeadJester maricopa, AZPosts: 499Member
    Originally posted by DonnieBrasco

    Originally posted by DeadJester

    Originally posted by DonnieBrasco

    Originally posted by DeadJester


    this game will hover around 300k not bad not great there are 2 many games coming out for this game to be uber  but it will be a good game for a long time  and i was not counting all the gold farmers so like 350 k
     

    A clue for you: LOTR universe/lore is many many years old and known by billions.

    There is no such thing as EQ/Warcraft/Warhammer/etc lore outside the computer and the roleplay world - which is a couple million ppl at BEST.



    DB


    and what does that have to do with the online game?  Star wars has the same kind of fan base so does Dungens and Dragons so what your point just because the IP is good and is known  by BILLIONS doesnt  mean a BILLION players will play it

    Noone was talking about a billion players.

    Wow has broadened the MMOG genre and LOTR has a huge fanbase. (DnD fanbase don't make me laugh trying to compare :)) This is their chance to jump in.

    BTW a beautiful, solid, fun to play and very accessible game should have more than 500k subscribers on its own merits, no need for a huge IP anyway...

    DB

     

    ok well when  AoC and WAR come out and your player base will take a hit and like I said be around 350k
  • kwaikwai frederikshavnPosts: 830Member
    Well the LOTRO player base is more based on the PvE carebears i think since they announced from the start that it would allmost be impossible to grief players / pvp / pk them.
  • MMO2007MMO2007 aixPosts: 26Member
    Originally posted by zaxtor99


    In six months, Lord of the Rings Online will reach a MINIMUM of 3 MILLION subscribers. Just watch. Laugh now. Flame now. Whatever. But wait the six months and come back and throw this in my face if I am wrong.


    - Zaxx
    you're completely wrong because lotro has poor content. And can't fight against AOC and WAR  (that's why turbine launches it now, he has 6 months from april to october ) Lotro is cool but has the lowest content of all MMORPG's played with.



    200 000 subs in april (maybe)

    100 000 in 3 months

    50 000 in 6 months  (Founder offer 6 months and ... cancel

    - 10 000 in december (no isengard no minas tirith etc): only founder offer/for life (5000 boxes + 5000 others imo)

    was in beta since december 2006 and i'm not going to subscribe not even take the standard box.

    BUT my account isn't closed :) so turbine could say my account = 1 subscription
  • KenichiKenichi Portland, ORPosts: 109Member
    Anywhere from 400k to 800k will be the first number.  I've never really given subscription numbers any real thought for any game though, so it is a wild guess. I really don't think that all the pre-orders will have subscribed, but at the same time I can see more people picking up the game now that it has been launched and I can see it passing the original mark.



    Where it will end up after it's all said and done? Around the 1 million mark. Reason would be that more news and, hopefully, release dates are given for the other major hitters and it seems that they have more hype/community building around them then this.



    Then again, they may push back the dates for the other games farther, or there might be new content that blows everyone away and gets more subscribers. We will see eventually..
  • nomadiannomadian DevonPosts: 3,490Member

    It is going to do well but I'm going to question its retainability over some other mmorpgs. If it has a lot of people only playing the game for two months, its subscription level may get to a point where it isn't rising as steeply as it could have done. But still, think it will amass 500k or so subscribers at some point, could even potentially get to a million. But it has a strong competitor with WoW and upcomming mmorpgs like Age of Conan on the horizon.

  • GameloadingGameloading NAPosts: 14,182Member
    Originally posted by Quingu

    that site is BS since Turbine announced  600k pre-orders one month ago.
    Really? Go ahead and try to find official information about 600k pre-orders.



    Its just a rumor that for some reason is now accepted as fact.
  • Red_RiderRed_Rider Brossard, QCPosts: 261Member
      I think it will do well, but nowhere near the numbers I've been hearing.  In open beta they had 11 servers which would mean about 150k to 200k players (could be even less since at the start of an MMO everyone is in the same zones and they usually lower the cap on the servers),  a long way from the 600k to 1 million they seemed to be expecting.  I do think the will be in the 500k range after the first year, and as WoW as shown us, easy does not have to mean short life.
  • Mars505Mars505 Mars, AKPosts: 623Member
    Originally posted by kwai

    Well the LOTRO player base is more based on the PvE carebears i think since they announced from the start that it would allmost be impossible to grief players / pvp / pk them.
    So your saying this game is for hardcore mmo players ? Instead the noob gank fest player ?

    You can Spar players , but o wait, you can't gank them LOL. It is funny how mmorpg genre has gotten so twisted .

    who me ?

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